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Swine flu absences could hit 27% of workforce

There are mixed reports about the likelihood of a resurgence of swine flu this autumn. The estimated number of cases in England rose from 3000 to 5000 last week but in Scotland there was a sharp increase to 6000. In his weekly briefing, Sir Liam Donaldson, the Government's Chief Medical Officer, stated:

"We might be seeing the start of an upturn. There are straws in the wind, from the increase in consultations with GPs and a small increase in hospitalisations. It suggests swine flu is coming back."

It is therefore worth bearing in mind that in one week in July there were over 100,000 cases and the general consensus is that a second wave of the disease would have a much more widespread impact. As a result, many employers are making plans for coping with significant staff absences. Although the Government has estimated that peak absence rates could reach 12% of the workforce, Sainsburys are planning for absences of up to 25%. The reason is that many of their employees have to care for children and other dependants and it is also anticipated that many will live in households which are affected by swine flu so there will be the risk of infection if these people attend work. It is anticipated that if there is a significant increase in the number of people contracting the disease, containing measures will include encouraging people not to congregate in public places, not only affecting the level of absenteeism but also the ability of employees to carry out normal functions in the face of temporary closures of locations where people meet in the course of their work.

The most obvious likely impact is school closures and this is something which has been specifically considered by the BBC. The Corporation has based its contingency plans on the Government's estimate of 12% employee absence as a direct result of contracting the disease but has factored in a further 15% if schools are closed.

In another development, employers have reiterated concerns about employees taking advantage of the situtation to take additional leave without good reason. As we have previously reported it is anticipated that employees will be allowed to self-certify their absence for up to 14 days. The Government is being urged to reduce the self-certification period to 10 days but even if the reduction is agreed, the opportunity for abuse of the entitlement remains obvious. The dilemma for employers is that, although return to work meetings are sensible and recommended, they are after the event. Attempts to catch out employees by investigating during their absence may well lead to breaches of the implied mutual duty of trust and confidence which is incorporated into all contracts of employment and, in more serious cases, could trigger the added problem of industrial action.

It is easy just to wait and see in the hope that concerns have been overstated and the anticipated problems just won't arise. Many employers will remember the time and money spent in preparing for the supposedly devastating effects of the "Millennium Bug" which turned out to be a great deal of fuss about nothing. However, those who watched the recent drama about the Spanish Flu of 1918 on BBC Four will know that it was a timely reminder that the disease was first identified in America in March 1918, spread worldwide by June 1918, infected 50% of the world's population and killed 40-50 million people. Subsequent flu outbreaks have been very much less severe but it is worth remembering that the World Health Organisation have described swine flu as "unstoppable" and the Government's "first wave" of vaccinations is intended to cover 13 million with contingency plans to vaccinate the entire population.

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